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Brief Market Commentary 10/30/15 – $RUT, $RVX

Big Picture:

Today we’re going to have an abbreviated market commentary that only covers Levels of Interest and the December CIB trade.  I have plenty of things I’d like to say about CNBC after the GOP debate this week, but I’ll keep those comments to myself for now.

Levels of Interest:

In the levels of interest section, we’re drilling down through some timeframes to see what’s happening in the markets.  The analysis begins on a weekly chart, moves to a daily chart, and finishes with the intraday, 65 minute chart of the Russell 2000 ($RUT).  Multiple timeframes from a high level create context for what’s happening in the market.
10.30.15RUT.weekly
10.30.15RUT.daily
10.30.15RUT.intraday

Live Trades . . .

The “Live Trades” section of the commentary focuses on actual trades that are in the Theta Trend account.  The positions are provided for educational purposes only.

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The December CIB looked like it might hit an upside adjustment point this week, but that never occurred.  The market came right up to the adjustment point and then backed away.  The image below shows the current position as of the close on Friday.  This has been the quietest first week a CIB has gone through in a while.  I’m definitely not complaining.

RUT.Dec.Fly

Click here to learn about the Premium Course that covers the CIB Trade in Detail

 

The November Migrating Butterfly in SPY was closed this week for a loss of around $110.  SPY constantly challenged this trade and it was time to take it off for the loss.

Looking ahead, etc.:

My main area of concern right now is the upside adjustment level in RUT around 1180.  That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the market fail and break down.  There’s a lot of indecision right now and having a directional opinion doesn’t make sense until the market gives us a little more direction.

Quick, fast, and brief.  Have a good weekend!

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  • Thanks for the commentary. I agree with your comments that RUT might be challenged at these levels. It is trading much weaker than SPX. My RUT iron condors are loving it. I am getting hurt with my SPX ccs positions but not to the point where I need to adjust. I look forward to a a pullback or at least a pause in this massive run-up. I am fascinated with your CIB trades as it appears to be pretty solid. I have not finished your course yet. But once I do, I will have more questions about the CIBs. Thanks again for this amazing site and your new course.

    • Jonathan thanks so much for your comment. Sometimes it’s better to be in SPX and sometimes it’s better to be in RUT. It has definitely been better to be in RUT over the past few weeks to month or so. The move up in SPX was big and it will be interesting to see if the market can continue or if it’s just a fake-out.

      The CIB does hand a wide range of environments well, but you do need to move them around and keep up with the market. I’ll be glad to answer any questions you have and interested to hear about your experiences once you begin trading or paper trading them.